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Adam's Analysis
Vincent Jackson's Suspension & Holdout
July 14, 2010
Well by now we’ve all heard
that Vincent Jackson was suspended for the first 3 games of the season. So now how does that affect our draft
strategy? In my view it, shockingly, drops him to the middle of the draft at
least. Jackson started off hot last
season, but then tapered off towards the end of the season. His catches and yardage totals were still
pretty good except for weeks 10, 12, and 13, but his TD catches are what took a
real tumble. And as any seasoned
Fantasy Football vet knows that hurts big time. It’s a shame he will be suspended those first few games as they
play Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Seattle all of which have weaker defenses,
especially weaker pass defenses. He
returns for Arizona, Oakland, and St. Louis.
Again, all pretty soft defenses.
Oakland may be the toughest, but Jackson had good success against the
Raiders last year with 159 yards, 13 catches and 2 TDs. So he comes back to a good situation. It gets tougher through weeks 7, 8, and 9
then they have their bye. I don’t
normally like taking Jackson as he can be a bit inconsistent, but with the
development of Philip Rivers and the loss of Tomlinson and the unknown rookie
factor of their new running back it appears that the Charges are going to be
more pass oriented. Jackson’s numbers
have gotten better over the last couple of years and I see no reason why this
would end this year.
The other detail to watch
with this situation is his refusal to sign his tender offer. This could keep him out until weeks 7 or
10. This uncapped year is really
screwing with players, their salaries, and their free agency status’. AND it really messes us Fantasy Owners up. The details are murky and it appears that
these time frames all depend on how vindictive the team wants to be. History has shown that the Chargers GM can
be a bit player unfriendly. So my bet
would be Jackson would have to make a playing decision by week 7. This will allow him to include this season
as a full season under the current CBA (collective bargaining agreement). He needs that to calculate his free agency
status going forward. If he hasn’t
signed by your Draft day then DO NOT draft him. Let him sit in Free Agency until later in the year. Experience shows that you can ALWAYS find some
new, hot receiver during the year if you are patient AND you pay attention to
the waiver wires. I highly doubt that
his contract situation will be resolved by the time of your draft. Personally I would stay away from him and
his question marks until the contract situation is resolved. When it is, then grab him if he’s
available. If the contract is resolved
before your Draft, then you should be able to get him cheap (in an auction
league), or in later rounds in a conventional draft. If someone jumps up and grabs him early so be it. There are plenty of quality receivers in
this years Draft for you. My key to
Jackson is not so much his suspension as is his contact hold out. That should determine what you should do
with him. It will for me.
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